In 1957 the now 78-year-old Dr. Robert Webster was but 25. Young to become the first virologist to postulate that there was a connection between human flu and avian, or bird flu. But he was the first to find that link and since whenever Dr. Webster talks about influenza people tend to listen.
So when he spoke with a group of reporters during a break in the Options for the Control of Influenza conference in Hong Kong on Sunday Sept 5 2010 recorders were turned on and the notepads opened. His message? That just because the swine flu, the H1N1, did not turn out to be as devastating as it might have been that doesn't mean a major flu outbreak couldn't be headed our way.
Swine or H1N1 Flu Declared Last Month by Who to be Over
H1N1 killed some 18,600 people worldwide but the World Health Organization (WHO) feared during the earlier stages of the spread that it may take many more lives; some thought potentially millions more. But though it did not turn into a major outbreak - WHO declared the H1N1 threat over on August 10 2010 - Webster says that we're not out of the influenza woods yet.
The chairman of the virology and molecular biology department at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, Dr. Webster told reporters that we must prepare for others. "We may think we can relax and influenza is no longer a problem. I want to assure you that that is not the case," he said.
He pointed out that viruses are forever evolving and changing, adapting. It is within the realm of possibility, he says, that the future could see an influenza spread in a manner that it cannot now spread. A big concern for Webster is the H5N1.
The H5N1 Virus Kills Over Half
H5N1 spreads from water fowl to pig and from there on to a human. It has killed some 300 people worldwide over the past seven years and it takes the lives of the majority of humans - 36 have died in a developing story in Egypt - who come into contact with it. What is holding the H5N1 back from becoming a devastating global virus now is one crucial element that apparently could change.
"H5N1 can kill 61 percent of humans infected but it doesn't know how to spread from human to human," Dr. Webster, who is a director for WHO, said on the Sunday. "But don't trust it because it could acquire that capacity so we must stay vigilant."
What then is the likelihood of H5N1 adapting in a deadly manner? "Subtle changes in influenza viruses over time can dramatically influence the likelihood that these viruses will be able to infect human populations, and this is a huge concern," Dr. Jeremy Berg, who's the director of the U.S. National Institute for General Medical Sciences in Maryland, is on record as saying.
Influenza Warnings from WHO May Have Caused Large Government Expenditures
WHO has come under criticism globally for its reactions to the swine flu, especially in the early stages. Some media and members of governments in Europe and elsewhere, and many individuals, have suggested WHO played into the hands of pharmaceutical companies by issuing dire warnings that in essence convinced governments to stock up on the H1N1 vaccine when doing so wasn't needed.
Some countries, like France, have tens of millions of the vaccines left over and now must destroy them. (some do not e.g. Poland didn't buy vaccines for H1N1). But at the Hong Kong conference, which ends Tuesday, Sylvia Briand, the global influenza program head for WHO, said the world health body was simply dealing with the best information it had at the time.
"We prepared for the worst and hoped for the best. And as the information became available, there was adaptation of the plan and adaptation of the recommendations in order to really tailor the response to the reality," she said at the conference. "But it took some time."
Sources:
St. Jude's Children Research Hospital website
Zimmer, Dr. Shanta M., Burke, Dr. Donald S.; 'Historical Perspective - Emergence of Influenza A (H1N1) Viruses', published June 29, 2009, accessed Sept. 5, 2010; New England Journal of Medicine
Lee, Min; 'Expert warns of complacency after swine flu fizzle'; Associated Press, Sept. 5 2010; accessed Sept. 5 2010.
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