While I am not a sports betting man myself, last week I put some on-the-track perspective behind 2011 Daytona 500 Vegas odds. This week I'll be breaking down Vegas odds for NASCAR's Subway Fresh Fit 500 at Phoenix International Raceway.
While there are more bets placed on the Daytona 500 than any other event throughout the NASCAR season, its style of restrictor plate racing often leads to dozens of lead changes, multiple cautions and unpredictable finishes.
For starters, if last week has taught us anything, let's not count out the underdog. 2011 Daytona 500 champion Trevor Bayne (yes, that really did happen) was an unreal 300-1 dog before taking the checkers in the Great American Race. If we were to pick an underdog heading into Phoenix, make it any driver that isn't going to piloting a Chevrolet Impala on Sunday. Since 2005, Chevy drivers have won five out of the six spring races at Phoenix, including the last five in a row. In the fall race, the Kobalt Tools 500, only one Ford driver has won since 2003, which was Carl Edwards last season.
2011 Subway Fresh Fit 500 Odds
Looking forward to Sunday, it should be no surprise that the Vegas favorite to win is five-time defending NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has four career victories at Phoenix, including sweeping both of the 2008 races. Johnson's Vegas odds for Sunday are a field favorite 5-2.
Denny Hamlin had a tumultuous stop at Daytona, leading seven laps before coming home 21st. Vegas oddsmakers rank Hamlin second with 4-1 odds to take home the checkers at Phoenix. Hamlin's teammate Kyle Busch has 6-1 odds.
As mentioned, Carl Edwards is the only Ford driver to have won at Phoenix since 2005, winning last season's fall race at the one-mile speedway. Edwards might have won last Sunday had it been the Daytona 502.5, and enters Phoenix looking to build on his second-place finish in the 500. Edwards and the No. 99 car are 8-1 odds on Sunday.
At 10-1 are two drivers who can win anywhere, on any day: Tony Stewart and Kevin Harvick. Stewart finished 13th at Daytona while Harvick won this race back in 2006.
At 12-1 are Jeff Gordon and Greg Biffle, who between them share a sole victory in the desert, Gordon's victory in the 2007 spring race.
He's no Trevor Bayne, but consider Matt Kenseth a dark horse heading into this weekend. The 2003 Sprint Cup Series champion has never won at Phoenix, but finished sixth and seventh in the track's two races last year. Kenseth enters the weekend with middle-of-the-pack 18-1 odds to win on Sunday.
Sean J. O'Rourke - I'm Sean, a 25-year old marketing professional, photographer and sports and music journalist currently living in northeastern New Jersey. ...
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