On Sunday, December 5, 2011, the final BCS football standings will be released and the pairings will be announced for the 2011 BCS bowl games. A quick review of the BCS bowl selection procedures reveals predictions for the ten teams that will likely qualify for the top college football bowls this year.
BCS Bowl Automatic Qualifiers
There are six criteria by which teams earn automatic qualifying status for the 2011 bowl series, according to “BCS selection procedures” published at the official BCS website are;
- Provision 1: The top two teams in the final BCS standings are automatic qualifiers.
- Provision 2: Conference champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 and SEC earn automatic qualification.
- Provision 3(A): Conference champion of Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West, the Sun Belt Conference, or the WAC is deemed an automatic qualifier if such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings.
- Provision 4: Notre Dame is an automatic qualifying team when the Irish finish in the top eight of the final BCS Standings (Not applicable in 2011).
- Provision 5: After application of provisions 1-4, and an at-large team from an automatic qualifying conference for its champion is ranked No. 3 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier if no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the BCS national championship (Not applicable in 2011).
- Provision 6: After application of provisions 1-5, if no team qualifies under provision 5 and an at-large team from an automatic qualifying conference for its champion is ranked No. 4 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier if no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.
Based on the BCS provisions, assuming that Auburn wins the SEC Championship game and Oregon defeats in-state rival Oregon State on Saturday, December 4, 2011, automatic qualifiers for 2011 will be;
- Provision 1: Auburn and Oregon (BCS 1 and 2 rankings).
- Provision 2: ACC Champion (Florida State or Virginia Tech), Big East Champion (Connecticut, Pittsburgh or West Virginia), Big Ten Champion (Michigan State, Ohio State or Wisconsin), and Big 12 Champion (Oklahoma or Nebraska).
- Provision 3(A): TCU as Mountain West Champion ranked in the top 12 of final BCS standings.
- Provision 6: Stanford based on a projected No. 4 final BCS ranking.
BCS Bowl Team Selection Procedures
Contractual commitments between specific BCS bowls and conferences will decide the following;
- Orange Bowl: ACC Champion
- Rose Bowl: Big Ten Champion
- Fiesta Bowl: Big 12 Champion
The Rose Bowl also has a contractual agreement with the Pac-10 Champion and the Sugar Bowl has the same with the SEC Champion. If both Oregon and Auburn win Saturday, both bowls will have to choose replacement teams.
By the provisions of the “Team selection procedures” published at the official BCS website, for 2011 the Rose Bowl, projected to lose Oregon to the championship game must choose a non-automatic qualifier.
While it has been widely reported, a December 3, 2010 USA Today article, "TCU hoping for history to repeat with BCS upset on final weekend" as one example, that this provision requires that the Rose Bowl invite TCU, based on BCS provision 3(A) for 2011, TCU is a bona fide automatic qualifier as the Mountain West Conference Champion ranking in the top 12 of the final BCS standings. Stanford on the other hand, second-place finisher in the PAC-10, is a non-automatic qualifier. Look for Stanford not TCU to be matched against the Big Ten Champion (most likely Wisconsin) in the Rose Bowl football game, preserving its traditional Pac-10 vs. Big Ten flavor.
After the Rose Bowl replacement team has been selected the Sugar Bowl, Orange Bowl and Fiesta Bowl, in that order will choose teams.
Given the expected loss of Auburn to the national championship game, the Sugar Bowl in effect has the first two picks from the remaining automatic qualifiers and at-large teams ahead of both the Orange and Fiesta Bowls. As its replacement team expect the Sugar to take TCU and Arkansas with its second pick to preserve its SEC connection. TCU will be the highest ranked automatic qualifier remaining and Arkansas would likely be chosen over LSU who lost to Arkansas in the regular season.
Final Two BCS Bowl Selections
Following the Sugar Bowl, the Orange Bowl will choose a team to play against the host ACC Champion. Available teams include the Big East Champion and remaining teams qualifying for an at-large berth.
On December 1, 2010, the BCS published the list of teams still in the running for BCS bowls. From that list, given the previous projections, only the Big East Champion and five other teams will be available to the Orange: Boise State, Ohio State, Michigan State, Missouri and Oklahoma State. LSU, a sixth team on the list, would be eliminated if Auburn goes to the national championship game and Arkansas to the Sugar Bowl. Only two teams from any one conference may be selected for BCS bowls.
Assuming the Orange Bowl would likely want the highest ranked team available, logically the highest ranked available Big Ten team would be chosen. Look for No. 6 Ohio State to play projected ACC Champion Virginia Tech in the Orange.
By virtue of having the last pick and the provisions of the BCS selection rules, the Fiesta Bowl will likely be saddled with the least interesting match up in 2011, the Big 12 Champion against the Big East Champion. With chances slim for a Pittsburgh appearance in the Fiesta, expect a match up between the projected Big 12 Champion Oklahoma and Connecticut, who has only to defeat South Florida to capture a Fiesta Bowl bid.
Most noticeably absent from the projections is Boise State who will likely have to settle for a minor bowl this season thanks to the loss to Nevada. That loss will also likely result in a much lower preseason polls ranking for the Broncos at the start of the next season than that which the team enjoyed this year.
Larry Darter - Larry Darter is a freelance writer and published author with three books to his credit. He is a graduate of the Univ. of Central ...
