A dry 2010 summer in Russia has triggered wildfires and reduced the grain harvest yield. The Canadian Prairies and Germany have suffered from the opposite problem; too much rain has impacted the wheat crop negatively. And, drought has hit farming in Australia and Argentina.
Russia Shuts Down Grain Exports
According to CBC News (“Grain Prices Spark Global Supply Fears,” Kevin Sauvé, September 3, 2010) the International Grain Council “estimates that world wheat stocks at the end of 2010-11 will be approximately 184 million tonnes, a drop of about eight million from July, and mainly due to reduced crop yields from Russia, Kazakhstan, and the Ukraine.”
Writing in the New York Times (“U.N. Raises Concerns as Global Food Prices Jump,” September 3, 2010) Neil MacFarquar says, “In early August, Russia announced an export ban that it would review at the end of the year, but Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin announced Thursday that the ban on grain exports would extend into 2011.”
One result was a jump in the price of wheat and this had triggered a knock-on to other staples such as soybeans and corn.
Food Riots Hit in Africa
In our globalized world, a decision made in Moscow can have implications halfway round the world; such is the case with the cereal harvest.
With Russia announcing a halt to grain exports food prices started to rise. In August 2010, the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index averaged 176 points; that’s an increase of nine points over July. The cereals component of the Index rose to 182 in August from 161 in July.
This led to a 30 percent increase in the price of bread in Mozambique, a near catastrophe for people living in extreme poverty. In late August, the desperate citizens took to the streets.
IC Publications reports (September 7, 2010) that “Police in Mozambique have arrested 286 people for violent protests against rising prices that left 13 dead and more than 400 injured during three days of unrest…which paralyzed the capital Maputo…and spread to several other cities in the centre and north.”
Officials Caution against Panic
The poor growing season has reduced the total cereal production to 644 millions tonnes for 2010, that’s down 33 million tonnes from 2009. However, last year was an all-time record and the 2010 figure is still historically high.
CBC News quotes Amy Reynolds, a senior economist with the International Grain Council: “In global terms, however, there isn’t really anything to be concerned about…supplies are less than expected [this year] but availability is more than ample.”
Longer Term Food Supply Problems Looming
Currently, the world’s population stands at 6.8 billion, with another 80 million being added every year. The U.S. Census Bureau projects a global population of between 8 billion and 10.5 billion between 2040 and 2050.
In 1996, the World Food Summit set a goal of halving the number of undernourished people by 2015, and the Food and Agriculture Organization says that target “is not going to be met.” In its June 2006 publication World Agriculture towards 2030/2050 the FAO says “Nothing short of a massive effort at improving the overall development performance will free the developing world of its most pressing food insecurity problems.”
Rupert Taylor - Rupert Taylor is the editor of a magazine that provides background to current events.
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