Wins by the New York Rangers and Buffalo Sabres on Sunday, April 3, 2011 left the playoff hopes of the Leaf Nation all but extinguished. By winning Sunday if the Sabres now pick up one point and the Rangers two Toronto will go a 7th straight year without playoff hockey.
After New York beat the Philadelphia 3-2 in a shootout, in Philly, and Buffalo went into Carolina to win 2-1 in OT, New York went five points up on Toronto and Buffalo, six. All three teams have three games left so Toronto has only six possible points remaining available to them; they likely would need all of them, three straight wins, to entertain any hope of post season play. Though it isn't that simple.
Rangers Have More Wins Than Maple Leafs
This year the tiebreaker for the first time is the greater number of regulation or overtime wins; in other words, shootout wins don't count in a tiebreaker. So if New York and Toronto are tied in points at the end of the schedule then Toronto, providing it gets two more wins in regulation or overtime (they have 32 now and New York has 33) would finish ahead of New York. Yes the Rangers will finish with more wins overall but they had more shootout wins than Toronto which, again, won't count.
If the Leafs did manage to pass the Rangers they would still need to pass either Buffalo or the Carolina Hurricanes to get to a playoff spot. To finish ahead of Buffalo, six points up, Toronto would need to have Buffalo lose all three of its remaining games and win all three of their games in regulation or overtime. That would leave the two clubs tied in points and regulation wins. It would then go to the second tiebreaker, which Toronto would win by virtue of having a better head-to-head record against Buffalo this season.
Meanwhile, the Leafs are 'only' three points behind the Hurricanes and by gaining the points it would take to get past either the Rangers or Sabres they would have a strong chance of getting past Carolina, who need four points from their three remaining games to ensure they finish ahead of Toronto.
Games Remaining: Rangers, Sabres, Hurricanes and Leafs
The Rangers play at home to Boston, Atlanta and the New Jersey Devils while Buffalo is at home to the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Flyers before finishing their season in Columbus. Carolina has games in Detroit, at home against Atlanta and then they travel to Tampa Bay. Toronto is at home to the Washington Capitals and then in New Jersey before their final game, at home against Montreal.
Obviously chances are in favour of the Leafs missing again and having to regroup and make this experience not go to waste. How? By coming out gunning right from the start next season to make sure they get more wins in the Fall and early winter. That would help them avoid needing convoluted late season permutations to get to the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs.
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