Much more needs to be done to reach a goal of energy sustainability with renewable energy resources. The Copenhagen Accord and agreements among G20 nations to phase out subsidies to fossil fuels is a step in the right direction, says International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka. (North American Windpower, NAW Staff, Nov. 10, 2010)
The recent release of IEA's annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) report, described a scenario described as the 'New Policies Scenario,' which takes account of the broad policy commitments and plans that have been announced by countries around the world, to move their energy policies forward with policies and plans to reduce the use of fossil fuels.
Projected Energy Growth
In the New Policies Scenario, Non-Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries account for 93 percent of the projected increase in world primary energy demand. China, which overtook the U.S. in 2009 - according to preliminary IEA data - to become the world's largest energy user. Despite its low per capita energy use, China contributes 36 percent to the projected growth in global energy use.
While oil remains the leading fuel in the global energy mix projected forward to by 2035, coal is number 2. Of the three fossil fuels - coal, oil, and gas - gas consumption is forecast to grow most rapidly, with its share of total energy use almost reaching that of coal. Globally, fossil fuels remain dominant over the WEO period in the New Policies Scenario, though their share of the overall energy mix falls in favor of renewable energy sources and nuclear power.
"Renewable energy can play a central role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions and diversifying energy supplies, but only if strong and sustained support is made available," says Tanaka.
While the U.S. maintained its number one position in 2009 in terms of total installed capacity, China became number two in total capacity, only slightly ahead of Germany, both of them with around 26,000 MW of installed wind capacity.
China added 13,800 MW in one year, continuing to be the driver of the international wind industry, and the largest market for new turbines, with wind turbines installations more than doubling for the fourth year in a row. In early 2010, China surpassed the U.S. in wind energy development and has continued throughout the year to expand its wind energy projects.
Other Countries Continue to Join the Wind Energy Surge
Asia accounted for the largest percentage share of new installations (40.4), followed by North America (28.4) and Europe in third place at 27.3. Latin America showed encouraging growth and more than doubled its installations, mainly due to growth in Brazil and Mexico. Globally, it is estimated that a total wind capacity of 200,000 Megawatt will be exceeded by the end of 2010. By the year 2020, according to World Wind Energy Association predictions, global capacity will reach 1,900,000 MW.
Despite the economic crisis facing the world in 2009, new records were set for wind energy utilization around the world, with investment in new wind turbines far exceeding all previous years. Ten years ago, the market for new wind turbines was 4 gigawatts, only one-tenth of the market for 2009.
Government Intervention to Support Renewables Will Increase
In the forecast of energy use and changing resources for the next 25 years, the New Policies Scenario predicts that government financial support in support of renewables will increase from $57 billion in 2009 to $205 billion (in 2009 dollars) by 2035.
The share of the full range of modern renewable energy sources, from sustainable hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, modern biomass, to marine energy, in global primary energy use triples between 2008 and 2035. Their combined share in total primary energy demand is forecast to increase from 7 percent to 14 percent. (NAW Staff)
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