It all depends on how quickly and effectively the rookie crop adjusts not only to football at the pro level, but — in many cases — to new positions.
San Francisco selected 10 players during the April 28-30 draft at New York, and have received underwhelming evaluations from analysts. The grades include a C+ from Pete Prisco of CBS Sports.com, a C from Rob Rang of NFL Draft Scout.com and a C- from ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr.
The lukewarm reviews are largely the product of what some prognosticators deemed risky moves early in head coach Jim Harbaugh's first draft with San Francisco.
San Francisco pursued a much-needed edge pass rusher by selecting Missouri's Aldon Smith with the No. 7 overall pick. In doing so the 49ers bypassed North Carolina's Robert Quinn, a better pass rusher than Smith in many estimations. They also steered clear of quarterback Blaine Gabbert, Smith's MIssouri teammate whom some thought would be a bargain for San Francisco at No. 7.
Smith could end up being just the guy San Francisco needs, but he'll have to do so at a new position. A defensive end in college, he figures to be an outside linebacker in the 49ers' 3-4 defense.
San Francisco traded up in the second round to grab Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick with the 36th overall pick. Kaepernick is a player of unquestioned athleticism, and put up huge numbers in college. But much of his success was due to his running ability, and he won't be able to fall back on that as frequently in the NFL. He'll have to adjust to being more of a pocket passer.
Adjustments are nothing new to 49ers' third-round pick — cornerback Chris Culliver of South Carolina. Culliver entered college as a wide receiver, switched to safety, and then shifted to cornerback for his final season. So he's still relatively new to the cornerback position, and will have plenty more to learn in the NFL.
If Smith, Kaepernick, Culliver — and some of San Francisco's seven other picks — make impressive transition, evaluations of the team's 2011 draft performance will naturally take an upswing. And it could happen.
The following is a quick look at each of the 49ers' selections.
Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri
The 6-5, 265-pound Smith is too small to be an end in San Francisco's 3-4 set, so the only other spot for him is outside linebacker. He has speed, strength, athleticism, an abundance of moves and a reputation for relentless play. In addition to being a proficient pass rusher, he's been good against the run. He also has experience dropping into coverage.
That Smith is talented is not disputed. The question is whether he's worth a No. 7. That will prove be the case if he's agile enough for the linebacker position. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.78 seconds at the NFL scouting combines. That's good for a player his size, but not necessarily for an OLB, Smith's sack total dropped from 11 1/2 in 2009 to 5 1/2 last season, when he missed three games because of a fractured fibula.
Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada
At 6-5, 230-pound, Kaepernick has bulked up considerably in the past year, and the 49ers hope that doesn't blunt his mobility. In college, he was a slender, slithery runner with long strides and an impressive accelerator. He was also tough and durable — qualities that obviously won't be hindered by the added muscle.
Kaepernick's arm strength is not a concern. In high school, he was considered more of a prospect as a baseball pitcher than a football player (his fastball was clocked at 95 mph). The Chicago Cubs actually used a draft pick on him in 2009 — long after Kaepernick had committed himself solely to football.
Accuracy is a greater concern. Kaepernick improved tremendously last season, when he completed 64.9 percent his passes — up six points from the the previous year. But Kaepernick spent his days at Nevada in a pistol offense, a modified version of the shotgun in which the quarterback takes snaps from four yards behind the center. Kaepernick also ran a lot — 600 times to be exact. If he can learn to take direct snaps and pass comfortably out of the pocket, he can become a solid NFL starter.
Chris Culliver, CB, South Carolina
Culliver, the 80th overall selection, has a good cornerback frame (6-0, 200), sufficient speed (4.4 40-yard dash) and plentiful athleticism. He topped 60 tackles in both 2008 and 2009 playing free safety, but after switching to cornerback last season, he suffered a torn pectoral muscle and was limited to seven games. His experience on the corner is extremely limited.
Still, the 49ers have to be happy about having a player with decent size, speed and range who has played both safety and cornerback. Plus, Culliver has ample special teams experience. He returned 106 kickoffs during his college career.
Kendall Hunter, RB, Oklahoma State
There is little argument that fourth-round pick Hunter was a superb college player. He earned first-team All-America honors as a senior and a sophomore, and might have done so as a junior if he hadn't been sidelined by an ankle injury. He suffered a worse one in high school, and his right ankle is surgically repaired.
Hunter is a rather small back (5-7, 200) and he ran an unspectacular 4.53 40-yard dash at the combines. But he's a resourceful player who makes swift cuts, finds and hits holes well, and makes good use of his low center of gravity. He's also a decent receiver who can provide help as a change-of-pace back.
Daniel Kilgore, OL, Appalachian State
San Francisco's fifth-round pick played guard and tackle at Appalachian State, but his NFL future could be at center. The 6-3, 310-pounder is known for being tough and aggressive with good mechanics. But he has a short reach, which pretty much shoots down his chances of making it as an NFL tackle.
Ronald Johnson, WR, USC
Johnson lacks size, being only 5-10, 185 pounds. His 40-yard dash time (4.49) isn't terribly impressive, and he was hindered by injuries in both high school and college. Those are three reasons he lasted until the sixth round. But Johnson enjoyed a solid career at USC, where he also returned kickoffs and punts. His special teams experience could keep him on the team.
Colin Jones, S, TCU
The second of San Francisco's sixth-round picks saw limited action in his first three seasons at TCU, but raised some eyebrows by making 80 tackles his senior season. He helped his stock even more by running a 4.37 40-yard das at his pro day. A 6-0, 210-pounder, he's been better against the run than he has against the pass.
Bruce Miller, DE, Central Florida
Seventh-round pick Miller was a two-time Conference USA's Defensive Player of the Year, garnering 33.5 sacks during his career. He might not get any more, because he might not play defense anymore. At 6-2, 250, he's too small to play D-line at the next level, and he might not have the speed for linebacker. But the 49ers apparently feel he has sufficient skills, muscle and drive to help at fullback.
Michael Person, OL, Montana State
The 6-4, 300-pound Person was the 49ers' second seventh-round pick. Extremely successful as a left tackle in college, he's being projected as a guard by San Francisco. Known as a strong weight-room performer, he elevated himself into the draft with a strong showing at the combines.
Curtis Holcomb, CB, Florida, A&M
A tremendously effective cover man in college, Holcomb was the 49ers' final pick in the seventh and final round. He's a tad small (5-10, 190) and his 40-yard dash time (4.47) is hardly spectacular. But he has a reputation as a tough, shrewd player.
Jon Matsune - Jon Matsune is a free-lance writer based in Northern California. He has 25 years of experience in newspaper journalism, mostly as a sports ...
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