As the rain falls on the UK, many people will be wondering if this is a sign of what's to come for the next month or so. That's because July 15th is St. Swithin's day and, traditionally, the weather on this day foretells the weather for the next 40 days. The question is, therefore, just how reliable is old St. Swithin?
St. Swithin in the Papers
The Sun tells its readers that "according to ancient folklore, today's rain heralds 40 days of downpours — and forecasters have not dismissed the possibility" and that "forecasters said many parts of the UK would be deluged with showers this morning following heavy rain in the past 12 hours". They quote Met Office forecaster Charles Powell as saying that the weather will continue "for the foreseeable future".
There is agreement in The Express who say that "though deluges will not blight the entire summer, experts did not rule out the potential for some rain every day".
The Daily Mail says that "as parts of the country wake up to rain today, it could indicate that the rest of the summer will be a washout". It goes on to quote the Met Office as saying "there are no signs yet of a return to the sunshine and blue skies of June and early July".
The opinion of the news papers, therefore, seems fairly unanimous. If you're in the UK in July and August, keep those brollies handy. However, is that the full story?
Not All Gloom
The Guardian explains that a wet St Swithin's day is not a bad thing. It reports that "instead of gloom, the rain was greeted with relief in the north-west, which has entered the second week of a hosepipe ban after the driest first half of the year since the 1920s". The question is, therefore, just how accurate is the St. Swithan's prediction?
St. Swithin's Day over the Years
The Guardian points out that "St Swithin's Day was dry in 1995 and was followed by 38 days without rain. Ten years earlier it rained on 15 July and all 40 following days were wet". That's not a promising start, with just 2 predictions correct over 20 years. Interestingly in 2004 The Times said it "it holds statistically true around 7 out of 10 years" and gives a possible reason for that as being "because the jet stream - a river of wind several miles high - often fixes its position around early to mid-July" and that "the next milestone in the year's weather comes around August 24".
Finally The Independent quotes Matt Dobson, of the weather division of the Press Association, "There's usually at least one dry day in a summer - it's unlikely but it is possible."
Mark Alexander Bain - Mark Alexander Bain is a writer, Mo Bro and consultant for all aspects of software development at dsquared. He has also written regularly ...
