Five states, Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire qualify for the title of 2008’s Swing States. The New York Times lists six battleground states (Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and New Hampshire) while CNN lists 8 (Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Florida, Virginia and Missouri.) The Rasmussen Report poll on 9/4/08, Fox News on 9/2/08, BBC America on 9/1/08 and USA Today/Gallup polls on 8/30/08 all show similar results, but 2008's common “5” are on every poll.
The Common 5 Swing States
In an August 30th 2008 New York Times article by Jeff Zeleny, Adam Nagourney and Shan Carter, a report on each candidate’s performance in the 50 states was given. CNN had a similar report on September 3rd and that data gave the Obama-Biden ticket 244 of the needed 270 electoral votes to McCain-Palin’s 189 votes. The Times report gave the McCain-Palin ticket 227 electoral votes to Obama-Biden’s 251; however, the common 5 states in each poll account for 55 electoral votes and over 20% of the total needed to become president.
- Ohio – with 20 electoral votes is the biggest swing state prize. Led by a Democratic governor, CNN argues that “Obama has been struggling with…acceptance…by blue collar voter.” The Buckeye state is historically evenly divided; having voted for President Bush in the last two elections and President Clinton in 1992 and 1996. Yet the NY Times article says, “…the Republican Party has been racked by scandal and…Mr. McCain has his work cut out for him….”
- Michigan – holding 17 electoral votes, is second only to Ohio and shares much of the same problems for the Democrats. A strongly Democratic state, the CNN poll shows that the Republican McCain has an opportunity in the normally Blue state. The Times article reports that while the Wolverine State has voted for the Democratic Presidential Candidate in the last 4 general elections, “Obama [has] trouble attracting blue-collar voters,” as in Ohio.
- Colorado – with her 9 electoral votes the nation has seen the demographics of the Centennial State change rapidly. Colorful Colorado has a Democratic governor, a Mexican-American US Senator and a growing Hispanic population that is making political inroads into traditional Republican territory. With a bounce from this year’s Democratic National Convention in Denver and a Hispanic backlash over Republican Immigration reform, McCain holds a slim 1% point lead, according to the CNN poll.
- Nevada– has 5 electoral votes that may transfer a traditional Red state to Obama. The Silver State has been the site of rapid growth the past 5 years and shares a common theme with many other Western states – a large influx of Hispanic voters. CNN reports Obama has a 2% point lead that may carry to the general election.
- New Hampshire– has 4 electoral votes and may be the most independent state of the swing states. According to the Times article, The Granite State “…has been slipping into the Democratic column…however, McCain may hold an advantage…because of his ability to appeal to independents.”
From the first African American nominee of a major political party to the first Republican woman candidate, from the potentially oldest elected President in history to the typical American white male candidate, the 2008 Presidential election is one large paradigm. The 4 candidates, Biden from the Northeast, and Palin from Alaska; McCain from the Panama Canal Zone and Obama from Hawaii, have shifted the traditional patterns. A change that includes the pivotal states, the swing states that will decide this presidential election.
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